Alexa, win the UFC’s flyweight title. Such was the scene at UFC 285 this past weekend when Alexa Grasso submitted the defending champ, Valentina Shevchenko, with a rear-naked choke in the fourth round. With how dominant Valentina has been at 125-pounds, there’s a great chance that there’s an immediate rematch. And now we have betting odds for such an occasion.
The oddsmakers had Grasso entering into UFC 285 as a massive +575 betting underdog, to Shevchenko’s heavily favored position of -900. Alexa pulled off the incredible upset by stopping the seemingly unbeatable flyweight, so for her rematch with Valentina she should be favored, right? Wrong!
The bookies have Grasso opening up as a betting dog once again, but this time by not as much as before. Alexa is available with a small dog tag of +155, while Valentina is starting out her rematch betting life with a favored line of -180.
Did we see an off night for Shevchenko at UFC 285, or did we see the better fighter in Grasso win that night? It couldn’t have been an off night or Valentina. She was routinely snagging takedowns, and although she wasn’t doing much with the positions, she was still in control. This was just the most opportunistic that we’ve ever seen Grasso be in the Octagon, and she did it at a moment when it mattered the most.
If Alexa didn’t jump on the back and sink the choke, would she have won the fight? That’s hard to say, but what we do know is that the chances of that exact thing happening again are slim to none. Also, if the rematch happens in Mexico and at elevation, then who knows how that x-factor will come into play.
The odds for Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 seems like a safe listing for the bookmakers. There’s just enough juice on Valentina to not make her a bargain, and then there’s really not enough meat on the bone of Alexa’s line to ignore the ample takedowns she gave up. There’s not a ton of value here, but this line could very well shift once the match is actually made and we approach fight week.
Check out the betting odds for Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 2, courtesy of Sportsbetting.ag:
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About the author: Eddie Mercado has covered combat sports since 2015. He covers everything from betting odds to live events and fighter interviews. He holds a 1-0 record in pro MMA and holds a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. (full bio)
