Deal or no deal?
That’s the question wracking the entertainment industry as the clock ticks down to the expiration of the Writers Guild of America’s three-year contract on Monday at midnight. Around that time, the public should learn whether the union representing some 11,500 film and television writers struck a deal with Hollywood studios and streamers, such as Disney and Netflix, or whether it will call its first strike in 15 years.
As negotiations between the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), representing the entertainment producers, and the union continued on Monday after a weekend of grueling back-and-forth, rumors flew and tensions rose. “I spent all weekend working trying to turn things in today while I can,” says one writer. “And I am not alone. Every writer I know has been working overtime to turn things in today, furthering the trend of our labor being exploited.”
Another writer added, “Since two projects hit radio silence as soon as the authorization numbers were announced, I wait hopefully-slash-fearfully.”
A work stoppage would have massive implications not only for entertainment companies but crewmembers, above-the-line talent and support staff that work on shuttered projects as well as local businesses that serve the industry — during the last writers’ strike, in 2007-2008, the California economy lost an estimated $2.1 billion, according to the Milken Institute. Writers, of course, would lose income as they withheld all writing, revising, negotiating and pitching (per their union’s strike rules, which are taken very seriously) and some among their ranks might see lucrative overall deals evaporate, if a strike went on long enough, by dint of force majeure provisions.
There are multiple ways that the conclusion of Monday’s talks might unfold. If the parties reach a deal, the WGA will inform its membership and a strike will be avoided, at least temporarily: Any deal would have to be ratified and voted on by the membership, who theoretically could still reject the deal, in which case a strike would still be on the table. If they accept the agreement, the industry would avoid a work stoppage many have been fearing for months.
The WGA and the AMPTP could also, in theory, temporarily extend their expired contract to keep negotiations going if both sides feel that they are close to a deal. This option seems increasingly unlikely, as the WGA has previously signaled to industry investors that a strike, if it occurs, would begin May 2. The union further informed members on Sunday night to “be ready for a potential strike” even as its negotiators would continue to hammer out details with studios and streamers on Monday, and asked them to fill out a survey regarding picketing locations.
Finally, if the talks break down and the WGA’s negotiating committee decides to call a strike, that work stoppage could begin soon thereafter. The union would need to get the sign-off from its western branch’s board and its eastern branch’s council and then inform members of their picketing locations and times. On Sunday, a WGA contract captain — a union member who volunteers to disseminate internal information to fellow members — said, depending on the timing of the decision, picketing could start Tuesday morning or afternoon.
If a strike does occur, the first titles to be affected would be late night shows, which rely on up-to-the-minute writing about domestic and world events: Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, Real Time With Bill Maher, Late Night With Seth Meyers, Saturday Night Live and Last Week Tonight With John Oliver. (In airing his final episode atop CBS’ Late Late Show on Thursday, James Corden narrowly avoided any disturbance to his sendoff.) Saturday Night Live, whose next episode airs May 6, would almost certainly be disrupted, as many of its castmembers are also writers. Next, the WGA has advised, could come network television series like Abbott Elementary, as writers on shows that premiere in the fall tend to commence their jobs in May or June.
For now, these scenarios are still prospective, and players across the industry remain in a state of suspense. One resigned literary agent told The Hollywood Reporter, “It’s definitely happening. The timing is terrible, and I think a lot of writers will agree with that. Everyone is just scrambling to get as much done as possible today.” Another said, “The WGA is a well-run union,” noting rumors that the union might extend the deadline and then others that that option was off the table. “I think that’s smarter. I think they have to strike to make national news and really show their weight.”
Another agent said, “[The studios] will have to cave, but they’ll cave in six weeks.”
At the heart of these negotiations is the rapidly shifting state of the industry and writers who feel they have been left behind, their roles increasingly gig-ified, as a result of major companies’ wholehearted embrace of streaming platforms. While streamers like Netflix and Amazon Prime have come to favor “short order” series (those that are 8-10 episodes long or less, as opposed to the network series of yore, with 22 or 24 episodes), many writers are working for shorter periods of time and earning less as a result, the WGA has alleged. (Writers must also look for new work more frequently.)
At the same time, over the course of the past decade, the WGA maintains that more writers are working for their union-mandated wage floor, with 33 percent working for minimums during the 2013-2014 season and 49 doing the same in 2021-22. Prevalent “mini rooms” (small writing rooms that are convened before a series is greenlit), ascendant in the streaming era, the union continues, can depress pay, disadvantage up-and-coming writers and employ fewer writers than a real writers room. The WGA has been seeking to tackle all these issues and more with the AMPTP.
Meanwhile, AMPTP member companies — Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, Amazon, Disney and more — are looking to contain operating expenses as much as possible as they seek Wall Street’s mercurial favor and to weather an uncertain economic environment. Since late 2022, waves of painful layoffs have hit Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global and, most recently, Disney, in the name of cost-cutting. Production executives are trimming costs where they can and various projects seen as underperfoming have been disappeared from streaming services. And whatever the writers receive from the AMPTP could set a precedent for the directors and the actors, who negotiate soon after, as the Alliance’s member companies remain keenly aware.
The weekend leading up to Monday’s talks was packed with For Your Consideration (“FYC”) awards events across Los Angeles. There were panels, screenings, photo shoots and roundtables, where a looming strike was on everybody’s mind. Television’s A-list cracked jokes about how they’d soon have “a lot of time” on their hands, as all seemed to conclude a work stoppage felt inevitable.
The week prior, writers were scrambling to finish scripts and get in to pitch, even as many pitch meetings were canceled. Those working on broadcast shows are concerned about renewals and pilots, as if a strike occurs, they won’t be able to answer notes or plan for future seasons.
Despite that pervasive attitude, nothing is set in stone; six years ago, the WGA also seemed on the precipice of a strike but hashed out a deal with studios at the last minute (or, rather, less than an hour after their contract expiration deadline). Now, all eyes are on the AMPTP’s headquarters in an unassuming open-air shopping mall in Sherman Oaks — where the fate of the industry’s writers, and more besides, will be decided.
Lacey Rose, Mikey O’Connell, Lesley Goldberg and Borys Kit contributed to this report.
