2023 NFL Draft: Five teams most likely to trade into and five most likely to trade out of first round

The 2023 NFL Draft is now just hours away. There remains intrigue about what will happen at or near the top of the draft, but just as interesting is what could happen later. 

We have learned by now to expect the unexpected when it comes to the draft, and the toughest thing to predict is always which teams will try move up, down, or out of the first round entirely. In the space below, we’re going to give that a shot by taking a look at the teams that have been rumored to be interested in doing one or the other, and trying to pinpoint which of those scenarios makes the most sense given the respective histories of those teams and what selections they’re armed with this year.

For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, “With the First Pick,” featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)

Most like to trade into (or trade up in) Round 1

• Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have no first-round pick at the moment, as it was forfeited due to the Tom Brady/Sean Payton tampering investigation. There’s been a lot of smoke that Miami is looking to move up, though, and indications that Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is enamored with Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Considering how much the Dolphins have already invested in the running back position with their free-agent contracts and trades, that might not be the wisest move, but it’s out there and we know the Dolphins are always motivated to add playmakers.
• Tennessee Titans: Tennessee owns the No. 11 overall pick, and could be interested in moving up to grab its quarterback of choice. It’s also possible that the top QBs are already off the board by the time the Titans come on the clock at 11, and the Titans try to move back up from the top of the second into the latter half of the first round later, after selecting a different player with their own first-round pick.
• Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks have two first-round picks (Nos. 5 and 20), as well as a pick early in the second round (No. 37). John Schneider loves making draft-day trades, and he has the ability to move any which way he chooses on Thursday night. The Seahawks could try to make a move up to No. 2 or 3 to land a quarterback. They could try to move down from 20 and out of the first round. They could make each of their first two picks and try to get back into the latter part of the first round for a third Day 1 selection. Pretty much anything seems to be on the table.
• Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders were reportedly very interested in moving up to No. 1 before the Carolina Panthers made their trade to land the top pick. Might Las Vegas be the team that leapfrogs the Colts to land Arizona’s pick at No. 3? If not, would the Raiders potentially be in the Hendon Hooker business later in the first round, adding a Day 2 pick and something else to jump back into Day 1 and ensure themselves the fifth-year option on a quarterback? 
• Minnesota Vikings: Speaking of teams interested in moving up, there’s been a ton of noise about the Vikings looking to do so, perhaps as high as No. 2 or 3. That would almost surely be with a quarterback in their sights. However, I’m of the mind that the Vikings could just as easily go in the other direction. Speaking of which…

Most likely to trade out of Round 1

• Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota has the No. 23 overall pick, then doesn’t pick again until No. 87. We saw last year how Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is not necessarily married to the same pick valuations as much of the rest of the league, and the Vikes should therefore be viewed as a candidate to receive multiple Day 2 picks in exchange for their first-round selection, allowing them to stockpile as many picks as possible to reshape the roster over the next few years. 
• Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones could barely contain himself during the Cowboys’ pre-draft press conference, talking all about how the Cowboys could trade their pick to move up or down or sideways or some other way that hasn’t yet been invented. Dallas has rarely moved up in the first round since the Morris Claiborne debacle, but if the board is wiped of first-round targets by the time they come on the clock at No. 26, we could easily see the Joneses and Will McClay move down the board for some extra capital. 
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Tom Brady no longer in town and the roster getting older, the Bucs are going to need to figure out a way to replenish the cupboard. With the No. 19 pick, they could be a team that drops down into the 20s or even out of the first round entirely as a way to recoup some of what they have lost in free agency and retirements. 
• Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles own the Nos. 10 and 30 selections. They’re not moving out of the first round altogether from No. 10, but given Howie Roseman’s reputation and love of dealmaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they did move around the board. The team’s second first-round pick is a better candidate to be moved, with potentially a quarterback-needy team coming up from the top of the second round to land a passer they’ve got their eye on. (If not, the Eagles will probably just pick yet another defensive lineman to add to their stable. It’s what they do.)
• Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals rarely make trades, but when they do, they almost always move down. They’ve done so twice since 2012, which is honestly far more often than I would have thought. With Joe Burrow soon set to sign a long-term deal, acquiring extra draft picks to keep the cost base of other players on the roster as low as possible seems like a wise path to continue building around him.